Total and Electrical multiple units and Metro forecast strong

Total Shipments of Rail Rolling Stock

The overall rail
rolling stock market will witness a slow growth at an average of 2.0 percent
from 2017 to 2022, driven for the main part by the Asia Pacific and Europe
regions. At over $64 billion in 2017, the world rail rolling stock market has
reached a record high level. From a product segment perspective, the largest
contribution to the market’s growth in the 2012-2016 period stemmed mainly from
the train sets and locomotives, and Electrical multiple units and Metro
forecast strong growth. As per ARC’s forecasts, the total market for rolling
stock is set for a negligible growth of 2.0 percent. The rail rolling stock
market is foreseen to reach approximately $71 billion by 2022. While the
different regional markets are projected to grow steadily in the future, the
highest growth rates are expected in China, India, and Europe, 2.6, 2.4, and 2.1
percent, respectively.  

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Shipments by World Regions

Based on current
trends, ARC forecasts slow growth in the rail rolling stock market over the
next five years. There should be particularly average growth in most regions,
especially those with above-average GDP growth and rapid urbanization. The
established networks in Western Europe will only contribute moderately to
overall growth due to constrained budgets and investments, with massive growth
projected in rail network investments in Asia Pacific.

Growth in demand
depends heavily on China and India, where ARC is likely to see a network growth
(resulting in large rail investments), in continuation to the current phase of
rapid expansion in all types of rail networks. This may occur in the next
decade.

Further negative
impacts could come from economic developments. A double-digit recession, for
example, could lead to reduced investment in rail and declining transport
volumes, jeopardizing the growth perspective.

Set against this is the significant upside
potential in VHS and urban rail, which could lead to a continuous pipeline of
new infrastructure projects. In addition to China, ARC is also seeing strong
VHS investments in the US, India, and Europe. Analysis of large urban clusters
without rail systems shows a potential for over 300 new mass transit systems,
mainly in Asia Pacific, Africa/Middle East, NAFTA, and rest of Americas.